UK death rates.

[Tel Boy]

I know I'm not the only one to have noticed this, but why are the Covid-19 death rates in the UK so bad? It looks like it must be the worst in the world.

Have a look at this website, which takes its numbers from official government releases daily all over the world ...
Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,501,544 Cases and 171,720 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer - [Leaving Land Cruiser Club] then hit F5 to refresh and get latest figures
Scroll down and click on UK to see details of our figures. A couple of weeks ago (unlike all other countries) the UK stopped releasing daily figures for numbers of people who have recovered because the numbers are shockingly low. But it is still possible to derive that number from the daily total of active cases. Just look at the latest numbers for yesterday (20 April).

Total cases: 124,743
Number of active cases, that is people still in hospital: 107,890
Subtract those to get the number of cases where there is a known outcome - people who recovered or died: 16,853
Total deaths: 16,509
Subtract that to get the number who have recovered: 344
So that means of the 16,853 cases where there is a known outcome, the survival rate is only 2%. The death rate is 98%

No wonder the UK stopped publishing that figure. It is still the same horrifying rate it was two weeks ago when they stopped releasing the number of survivors.

What on earth is going on in our hospitals? Survival rates in Germany are 95% (of course). In France and Italy 2/3 of hospital admissions walk out alive. Here only 2% survive.

 

[Chris]

Just to add a small caveat to that, this number is the number admitted to hospital due to pretty severe symptoms. Not the number of people who have contracted the disease overall (which of course we don't know, but suspect is pretty small amongst a population of 68 million)

It kinda supports the theory that I have in mind. If you get it bad, then it's not good news. As said in a previous post there are several reactions to this.
1. You get it and don't even know. 2. You get it and you know, but a couple of days later you're back on the pies 3. You get it quite badly but go to hospital perhaps and subsequently recover. 4. Death

What these stats that you outline are showing is that there's few falling into the category 3. Look at Boris. Well, where is Boris? I don't mean that in a politically critical way, but I suspect that he came closer to category 4 than was let on and is still IN category 3 condition. Within that there is also an unknown factor 'x' of people who will get it and for no reason that we yet know, die from it but shouldn't really have done on balance.

 

[Tel Boy]

this number is the number admitted to hospital due to pretty severe symptoms. Not the number of people who have contracted the disease overall

Yes, I'm sure that's true. Many thousands of people have been told by 111 to stay at home (and die there!), not to go to hospital or even to their doctor's surgery. But my point really is the comparison with other places, particularly Europe. I suspect the same is true there, all Spanish and Italian hospitals were overwhelmed and people would only have been admitted if they were seriously ill. But 65% or 66% of them survived. Not 2%. The UK is more than an order of magnitude worse.

 

[jibberjabber]

The reason the UK death rate is so high is that the so called 'Lockdown" has just not been enforced strictly enough, there are a lot of people living in denial, and have the blase attitude 'oh it'll never happen to me'

They all 'Covidiot's'.

 

[Tel Boy]

Yeah, I get that, JJ. That affects the number of cases, not the death rate once you have it. And you are dead (!) right … that's why the daily number of new cases is absolutely NOT going down. But in this country, if you end up in hospital it's practically a death sentence. What is happening in UK hospitals that is not happening in Spain or Italy. Or, to put it the other way, what is not being done in UK hospitals? I wish I knew. It's a real worry.

 

[jibberjabber]

Yeah, I get that, JJ. That affects the number of cases, not the death rate once you have it. And you are dead (!) right … that's why the daily number of new cases is absolutely NOT going down. But in this country, if you end up in hospital it's practically a death sentence. What is happening in UK hospitals that is not happening in Spain or Italy. Or, to put it the other way, what is not being done in UK hospitals? I wish I knew. It's a real worry.

Ah, I get the picture, something fishy going on somewhere once your in hospital, is what your saying.

 

[Chris]

Well the thing is that we don't know,not really, just how valid the stats are for the countries that you mention do we. We may be comparing apples with chimps.
The assertion that more people who catch it badly are dying in the UK than anywhere else may simply not be valid. There is no prevention, nor a cure anywhere in the world. Therefore all any health service anywhere can do is manage the patient's symptoms and support their natural recovery. Is the UK doing this so badly that people die rather than recover? I'd certainly class my self as a natural born cynic, but I'm not sure even I'd subscribe to that theory.

I'm not sure I entirely agree with the concept that the few A-holes who are ignoring these measures are actually spreading the virus - no more than those going to Tesco, walking their dog etc etc. Being an idiot, driving 200 miles to collect a telly is plainly stupid, but does that spread the virus?

Don't get me wrong here - I am concerned too. This is killing people. They said it would. But it's the ones who were in the 'unlikley to be much more than a bit under the weather' who have died that has me twitching.

As we're in debate, here's a question I yet have to have answered. These old folk in care homes. Why, when they first became ill, were they not transferred to hospital? I'm not saying they'd have survived it, but 4000 have died in homes? I don't get that.

 

[ADD]

The government only tells you what they want you to know so as to manipulate the masses. THEY LIE

We have seen many examples ,

1991 - Mad Cows Disease - "Its safe to eat meat" then people got CJD
2008 - Economic crisis - Government said for people to go out and spend. Good for the economy bad for people who went on to lose their jobs
March 2020 - Covid19 - Government said - There is no benefit in the public wearing masks. WHO recommends that when people go out they should be wearing masks.

The figures are high as they are only counting those that are sent to hospital. Most likely that 10x the official figures have been infected. Therefore, Total cases: 124,743 in hospital equals 1,250,000 have been infected so 16,000 plus the 4000 deaths the additional deaths identified by the ONS as unusually high then maybe closer to the 1% expected for Covid19. We will only know the real numbers once we are through this.

 

[Tel Boy]

Ah, I get the picture, something fishy going on somewhere once your in hospital, is what your saying.
I really hope that's not the case, but I am desperately hoping to find a realistic alternative explanation. Haven't found it yet.

 

[Tel Boy]

Ah, I get the picture, something fishy going on somewhere once your in hospital, is what your saying.

I really hope that's not the case, but I am desperately hoping to find a realistic alternative explanation. Haven't found it yet.

 

[ADD]

We choose to drive the most reliable vehicle on the planet instead of following the masses and getting a new over engineered vehicle as we are told to do.

We're all big boys, we need to make our own decision about what protection we take and whether there will be a second wave.

Better to be overly cautious and be wrong than a lamb to slaughter

 

[Tel Boy]

Well the thing is that we don't know,not really, just how valid the stats are for the countries that you mention do we. We may be comparing apples with chimps.
The assertion that more people who catch it badly are dying in the UK than anywhere else may simply not be valid. There is no prevention, nor a cure anywhere in the world. Therefore all any health service anywhere can do is manage the patient's symptoms and support their natural recovery. Is the UK doing this so badly that people die rather than recover? I'd certainly class my self as a natural born cynic, but I'm not sure even I'd subscribe to that theory.

I'm in the cynic's club, too. But our death rate is completely out of line with anywhere else in the world - so far out of line that it's really frightening. Can it be that only the UK in all the world is reporting its numbers in a different way from anywhere else? Our government used to publish daily the number of people who tested positive in hospital and who recovered and were discharged, until a few weeks ago. The numbers were always way out of line with every other country. Way, way lower. Then the government stopped giving out those numbers. I wonder why. That really does make me suspicious. If you look at the worldometer website you can see that all European countries publish numbers of recoveries, even if they are not that impressive.

As we're in debate, here's a question I yet have to have answered. These old folk in care homes. Why, when they first became ill, were they not transferred to hospital? I'm not saying they'd have survived it, but 4000 have died in homes? I don't get that.

This is a really good point. I wondered if the high UK death rate was due to a triage issue. Everyone who is not in a serious condition is advised by 111 to stay home, so only the serious cases get into hospital. See post #3. But, as you say, this doesn't match up with the decision on the care home cases, who have been kept out of hospital. It really is not consistent. Should we be surprised if there is not any evidence of joined up thinking on this?

Frankly, I am beginning to think that there is indeed something fishy with the official figures. Not that we are looking at chimps in Italy, but the number of Active Cases seems unrealistically high. Can there really be almost 108,000 Covid cases in hospital at the moment? If that figure is lower, then the death rate changes quite a lot. Perhaps that is where the problem lies.

 

[Shayne]

There will never be an accurate count from any country because the means to test those who are still living isn't available yet . They won't be digging people up and cremations would ensure results were far from accurate anyway .

Could it be the toll seems so high in Britain because we generally take for granted the free healthcare most of us were born with and so we are more likely to seek medical help ?

 

[Tractionman]

Shayne, there is no 'free' health care, unless you are from outside this country and have never contributed, or a sponger, same thing I suppose.
Every tax paying person, whether paye or self employed, pays into the health service, like it or not

 

[guyc]

The populations of France and the UK are about the same and they have had around the same daily death rates. Other European countries with Germany as a notable exception have similar rates. As a result I think it is either that, as someone else has mentioned, you only go to hospital if you are seriously ill or the testing strategy is different in the UK. I don't think there is anything sinister going on or our mortality rates are any different to other countries.

 

[Shayne]

Regardless is it not generally taken for granted by all that its always there if needed .

I received a bunch of panicked emergency calls once because my stepdaughter had broke her leg so i went to find her checked her over and said shes fine she's just sprained it . If looks could kill i'd be dead so i gave in to the insistence of 6 adults and took her to A&E where a doctor told her she would be fine she had just sprained it .

The point i was trying to make is as a nation we "expect" treatment and therefore a high percentage of coronavirus victims will die in hospital .

 

[Tractionman]

Taken for granted yes, - free, still no !

 

[yogi]

Every death is being attributed to Covid-19 in the UK, and not allowing for underlying medical conditions. The final cause of death for huge numbers of people is pneumonia, regardless of whether they had cancer, heart disease, or basic old age as the underlying cause.

My father died two weeks ago from kidney failure, but was actually in isolation because when admitted to hospital he had a persistent dry cough (at 81, and after living like Keith Richards since he left the Navy in the 70s, it was hardly surprising that he had numerous shadows on his lungs, heart disease and a cough). He didnt live long enough in hospital (thankfully) to actually get a test result back, so he is another covid 'statistic'.

I'm not sure you are aware that in real life I'm a veterinary surgeon and horse dealer, and have lots of contacts in Sweden from the latter, where they haven't imposed the draconian (idiotic from an epidemiological viewpoint) house arrest measures you have in the UK and we have here in Ireland. And guess what.......... they're figures are virtually identical to Ireland (allowing for the population differences).

Because I'm a vet, I'm on the road 12+ hours a day this time of year, covering roughly a 1 hour radius in the middle of Ireland, so I can anecdotally recount that I can only find one person under 40 with no known underlying health condition that has died. Several neighbours, clients and other vets (ranging in age from 20s to 60s) have contracted and recovered from the disease, and a couple have ended up spending a couple of nights in hospital. I know a couple of nurses here, that tell me the hospitals are empty, A and E like a ghost town and we have 1000+ empty hospital beds (in a country with an appalling health system that usually has close to that on chairs and trollys).

This last statement is going to offend some, but the only significant pandemics I can discover are panic and paranoia. I haven't time to watch the news and I've no radio in my car (I'm actually taking a break from paperwork at 2236 to even look at the forum, or Facebook) and I would advise everyone else to do the same. If you take the time to look at that 'worldmeters' page, there are still more people dying daily from malaria, yet that hasn't stopped many of us travelling through the parts of the world where that disease is endemic.

 

[yogi]

Yes, I'm sure that's true. Many thousands of people have been told by 111 to stay at home (and die there!), not to go to hospital or even to their doctor's surgery. But my point really is the comparison with other places, particularly Europe. I suspect the same is true there, all Spanish and Italian hospitals were overwhelmed and people would only have been admitted if they were seriously ill. But 65% or 66% of them survived. Not 2%. The UK is more than an order of magnitude worse.

Recovery stats the world over are meaningless for the following reasons
1. Anyone not sick enough to go to hospital never features because they get 1 positive test, get better and go on about their lives
2. Even those that are hospitalised aren't deemed to have 'recovered' if they walk out the door, only after getting 2 clear tests a certain time apart. There are delays testing and getting results, so someone who's no longer symptomatic obviously isn't a priority, so they become a statistical error.

 

[yogi]

Finally, what people seem to be missing is that 'lockdown' is only a delaying measure, its not going to reduce the total number of cases. Even the WHO admit to that much if you read the 'small print'.

Unfortunately, people just need to get on with their lives and accept that, exactly like AIDS, influenza, cancer, car crashes etc, etc, etc the only sure thing in life is that we will all die some day, as will all our loved ones.