I think the question is not actually the shape of the fall and recovery, but more the angle of the other side - is it going to be the same growth trajectory as pre Covid-19, or which side of it?
That ultimately is the measure of resilience.
I do have some economic papers that look at the effect that WW2 had on Germany and Japan, and flooding in the Netherlands:
-Japan: Davis, D. R., & Weinstein, D. E. (2002). Bones, bombs, and break points: The geography of economic activity. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1269-1289. doi: 10.1257/000282802762024502
-Germany: Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., & Schramm, M. (2004). The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth. Journal of Economic Geography, 4(2), 201-218. doi: 10.1093/jeg/4.2.201
-Holland: Husby, T. G., Groot, H. L., Hofkes, M. W., & Dröes, M. I. (2014). Do floods have permanent effects? Evidence from the Netherlands. Journal of Regional science, 54(3), 355-377.
Now, I can't remember which are open access (ie free) but have a dig around in scholar.google.com and see what you can come up with.
With regards to the challenge of the incumbent, I am watching that at the moment in some aspects of things over here - but I think that things might move too slowly for it to really make a difference.